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Ranganathan Sowrirajan: India’s Fertility Story Is Changing

Ranganathan Sowrirajan/LinkedIn

Sep 6, 2026, 16:35

Ranganathan Sowrirajan: India’s Fertility Story Is Changing

Ranganathan Sowrirajan, Area Manager at Vitrolife and Igenomix India, shared on LinkedIn:

“India’s Fertility Story is Changing.

India is going through an important demographic transition.

According to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.9 children per woman – already below the replacement level of approximately 2.1.

But the national average tells only part of the story.

Fertility in India is far from uniform.

States such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to have relatively higher fertility, while several other states have moved considerably below replacement level.

There is also an important rural-urban divide. Earlier published data show rural fertility remaining higher than urban fertility:

Rural TFR: 2.1*
Urban TFR: 1.5*

This difference is particularly relevant as India continues to urbanise.

The discussion, therefore, is no longer simply about India’s population increasing or decreasing.

The more important question is: how will falling fertility – and the wide differences between states – shape India’s future?

The implications could eventually extend beyond family size to healthcare, education, workforce availability, economic planning and elderly care.

India does not have one fertility story. Different parts of the country are at very different stages of the demographic transition.

Source and Data Note:

Overall and state-level TFR figures are based on the latest available SRS Statistical Report 2024, Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India.

The rural-urban figures are from earlier published data and are included to illustrate the rural-urban fertility divide, since comparable updated figures are not available in the latest release.”

Ranganathan Sowrirajan